This is our First Tips in this website. Have fun
In most sports, the advantage of playing games at home is commonly accepted as a reality, but is it really true? Is playing at home an advantage in football? If yes, how do we measure that advantage?
Most mathematical models applied to forecast goals use different parameters depending on whether the team plays at home or away. For example, in a basic Poisson betting model different values are used in terms of defense and attack strength.
The advantage of the local team (or advantage of playing at home) is evident in the English Premier League (EPL), with 135 local victories in the 2016/17 season of the English Premier League, as opposed to 92 visiting victories, the result being medium from 1.60 to 1.20.
However, as we have mentioned in the past when analyzing how to create a betting model, the selected metric is important. It can be argued that the average result is 1-1, therefore there is no proof that there is a difference.
Why you should consider the goal difference
In their analysis of the home team’s advantage in the EPL, they investigated whether there are indications that the teams have a better performance at home. To find out, they considered the goal difference, instead of just the result.
That is, if a team lost 0-1 at home and 4-0 away from home, it means that the team has some kind of advantage at home, despite losing both games. They could not find a specific trend but their work, Home Team Advantage in English Premier League, offers a very interesting reading.
While the study mentioned above provides a magnificent reflection on the advantage of playing at home as a general concept, it also analyzes how it benefits the teams in particular. Liverpool is an example that stands out due to a constant decrease in the advantage of playing at home in recent times, compared to the advantage of playing at home of Arsenal, which seems to have been very irregular during the same period.
What contributes to the advantage of the local team?
There is always some subjectivity when applying models, hence it is necessary to consider the possible factors that explain why there may be the advantage of playing at home.
Often, bettors will consider the impact of distance traveled in the NFL, where teams can travel more than 3,000 kilometers to play a game (the longest distance between two Premier League stadiums this season, Newcastle and Swansea, is 570 kilometers).
Apart from the national competitions, the teams will have to travel further distances to compete in European competitions, such as the Champions League and the Europa League. Since the teams will have to make round trips due to these matches in a short period of time, the advantage of playing at home could be more pronounced both in European games played away from home and in games played away from home. After returning from a European party.
Another factor that contributes to the advantage of playing at home could be the number of spectators. The claim that fans act as “player number 12” on the field remains debatable, especially when teams like West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur have increased their capacity with new stadiums , but still suffered a decline in their performance.
A presentation at the last International Conference on Sport and Mathematics (June 2017) suggested that it could be bad arbitration decisions, since more and more of those decisions are modified later after a claim.
I am also very interested in seeing if the spectators exert any influence on the local team when it comes to scoring more goals or conceding less, that is, if the change in intensity varies depending on whether the home team or visitor scores or fits a goal. This could entail evaluating if there is any difference between the matches at home and away from the moment in which the first goal is scored.
The ideal to take advantage of the best and most competitive odds of betting for the 2018 World Cup is to be registered in more than one betting house. In the section of ‘Bookmakers’ we recommend some options so you can enjoy Russia 2018 getting benefits from your bets and your knowledge of football in general. Moving we must start from the quota is the number by which we multiply the amount of money that we bet. From that result will come no more or less than our profit. For example, if we bet 3.00 euros for Spain against Portugal with a quota of 1.90, we will receive a total of 5.70 euros (2.70 of profit, also recovering the 3.00 invested initially).
When comparing bookmakers to choose from in which to register we suggest that, as a starting point, you establish what your priorities are. The fees vary according to each operator and are very important because they will ultimately determine our income, but in no way are the only points to be taken into account. Do not lose sight of the fact that it must be a reliable company that inspires you with confidence and security, with good customer service, a wide range of bets and methods of depositing and withdrawing money that serve you, among other things.
Types of installments
In Apuestas-Mundial.es we deal with the decimal or European format, the easiest to understand and the one that you will find a priori in the majority of betting houses. The example described above is with decimal quotas. Assuming that Brazil pays 6.00 euros in the bets to the 2018 World Champion, if we played 2.00 euros we would get a prize of 12: 2.00 × 6.00 = 12.00 (10.00 of profit).
On the other hand, there is the quota per fraction, used mainly in the United Kingdom, which is why it is also called ‘English quota’. The fractional fee is precisely a fraction: if Spain before Portugal pays 10/11, we will set our net profit multiplying the money invested by the fraction. So, if we bet 5 euros, the account will be 5 × 10/11, whose result is 4.54.
Finally, we have the so-called American quotas, common in the United States, Canada and other countries in the region. Following the same example of the match between Spain and Portugal, the victory the red one in American odds could pay -110. In this case we have a negative quota and means that to get 100 euros, for example, we would have to put at stake 110.
While most of the bets are received when the event has not yet started, many times we have the possibility to bet during the course of the event.
The World Cup will not be the exception. The most prestigious betting houses according to us, like Bet365, William Hill or Bwin for example, will offer live betting thanks to its already famous “Live” service.
Although it seems obvious, it is worth clarifying that Live bets are those that are made with the match in play. When the quotas are changing according to the different circumstances of the meeting.
Now, in the face of the beginning of the 2018 World Cup Russia, from here we leave you a couple of tips.
– First of all it’s about how to place Live bets. That an event does not start as we thought it does not have to make us bet against what we had previously wagered.
In this way the only thing we will achieve is to increase the margin of error and reduce our chances. As an example, if we think that Spain will beat Chile forcefully, an early goal by the South Americans cannot make us change our bet in favor of the “Red”.
– In second place the interesting thing is to know when to use Live betting. We do not always have the time to place bets during a game. Sometimes we are working hours or simply do not have a computer (or any other mobile device) available to place bets.
But if we have the opportunity to witness the match, we can use the Live when the team shares that we consider favorite do not meet our expectations.
Let’s go back to the example of Spain – Chile
Obviously the quotas will increase if it is that Chile is winning the match. If we are sure that Spain will win, the time when it is disadvantaged is the best to bet.
Live bets are double-edged weapons. They are exciting and addictive, but before the end we recommend some advice. If you see that luck does not favor you with the Live, do not insist. There are people with skills to bet live and others just before the event.
The fact that football is the most popular sport today no one doubts. Obviously, the betting houses they give much more importance to this sport, having a more voluminous market traditionally with respect to other sports, in addition it has more impressive lists with smaller margins and with limits of bets significantly high. Where houses offer more number of bets. Bet on the result (victory of a team or draw), bet on the number of goals or exact result (0-0 onwards), different exact results (number of corners, yellow cards, fouls, shots at players’ doors , …) end of the first half and of the second, and so on. The best betting houses offer up to 100 types of bets for each football game. In the most modest, not all parties have as much market but the most important.
Advantages of football bets
High limits of bets. Since football is the most popular sport, the football line has traditionally been characterized by having the highest limits of betting. They have come to accept bets in a match worth 10,000 and 50,000 euros. Even in less important matches it is allowed to bet more than in other sports.
Low margin. In the most competitive betting houses are forced to inflate the maximum quotas in football, in order to attract against other firms. Therefore, in many bookmakers events can be 5 or 6 points above for example, hockey and volleyball.
Market line they depend on each betting house. No doubt the line in football is bigger than in the other sections. In important events, such as World, European or Champions League, the market can occupy 2 or 3 pages, and in the list of proposals you can find very diverse and unexpected types of bets, such as which team will take out of the center or will shoot first at the door.
A large number of television broadcasts. Above all, football is still the most widespread sport in the world, so you will always have the opportunity to observe the course of your bet on television. This is an excellent reason to play “live” that expert players appreciate.
The advantage of team sports. Due to the fact that soccer is a team sport, the variety of unpleasant surprises in the form of poor health or weak form of any player, affects relatively little compared to sports such as tennis. That is why many experts believe that betting on football is less risky than in tennis itself, where injuries or health problems can make all the money collected lose.
Disadvantages of football bets
A small number of so-called “Value” due to the growing popularity of analysts in football, the bookmakers pay special attention to the quotas they expose, since very early market offices are constantly looking at other houses to establish a uniform fees, this rarely inflated odds in football bets, except for low level tournaments.
Quick response to changes in the templates before the match. This drawback occurs for the same reason as the previous one due to the wide line in football. The bookmakers are extremely quick to react to any change of scenery before the game, unexpected illnesses, injuries, etc. The warning systems for betting houses are so powerful at different levels that this is why it is sometimes difficult to even make adjustments to the bet.
The main types of football bets
Bets on the result. Bets on the result are the result of time ruled, ie victory by one or another team and draw. In the main and even events, the odds are higher and the margin lower. Then it is also declined depending on the number of bets to each situation.
Handicap. The handicap is usually established in the goal difference and will generally put one or another team ahead. This can be positive (for example, +1.5), and negative (-1.5). In the first case the team must not lose by more than 1 goal. In the second case it is necessary that the team you have bet on win by at least 2 goals. In fact, these probabilities are calculated from the initial score (0-0). If at the end of the match, and adding the positive or negative handicap, the result is a draw again, you are returned the amount wagered.
Total. It refers to the total number of goals scored in the match. Each betting house indicates a total value, and you can bet more or less in relation to this value. For example, for the bet in -3.5 goals to win, the teams should not score more than 3 goals in total.
Exact result It is not difficult to guess by the title, the bet to the exact result means trying to predict the final score of the match. It’s really complicated, that’s why the quotas are so high in this market.
Other bets it depends on the width of the line or market coverage since it can vary from 2 or 3 sections to hundreds of proposals. You can bet on the result at rest, the number of yellow and red cards, number of substitutions, fouls and offside, who will draw first, the author of the first goal, and many other types of bets.
Pre-match analysis: what to look for before choosing a bet
This analysis is much simpler than in individual sports such as tennis but it does not mean that it does not have its complicated part. In fact, for an analyst it should not matter what kind of sport he wants to bet on, since the previous analysis should be an integral part of any of his forecasts. It is time to face what you should pay attention to before making a bet in football.
Current form of equipment. As in any other sport, the current form of the teams is a key issue that influences the bet. In order to properly assess the fitness of both teams, it is best to watch their last matches. If you do not have this possibility, look at the statistics of them. Pay attention to the latest results at home and outside of each team. Look at the results of these last three or four matches and read the interviews of the members of the coaching staff and the staff.
Face-to-face history naturally, football also affects the concept of “uncomfortable rival”. It often happens that after seeing a history of confrontations the opposite happens. That is why it is also essential to know the history of clashes as local and visitor.
Classification and motivation. Motivation in sport has always been the engine of performance, and in football, it is no exception. Key to the Eastern European Championships where home teams usually award few points.
List of injured and penalized. The main difference between football and individual sports is the need for a pre-match analysis taking into account the loss of players due to injury or penalty, keeping this in mind, depending on the role each player plays in his team, at the time of make a forecast.
Referee of the match. Although it does not seem like an important factor, not analyzing the arbitration style can be silly. It is important to compare the style of play of each team (hard or not) with the style of arbitration (strict or permissive). It often happens that there are complicated matches, which depend on the supervision of each referee. It is no secret that there are teams that prefer to defend and others to take possession and control of the ball. At the same time, there are arbitrators who whistle any contact and some who grant them. Therefore, when making a bet, it is an aspect to be taken into account.