This is our First Tips in this website. Have fun
In most sports, the advantage of playing games at home is commonly accepted as a reality, but is it really true? Is playing at home an advantage in football? If yes, how do we measure that advantage?
Most mathematical models applied to forecast goals use different parameters depending on whether the team plays at home or away. For example, in a basic Poisson betting model different values are used in terms of defense and attack strength.
The advantage of the local team (or advantage of playing at home) is evident in the English Premier League (EPL), with 135 local victories in the 2016/17 season of the English Premier League, as opposed to 92 visiting victories, the result being medium from 1.60 to 1.20.
However, as we have mentioned in the past when analyzing how to create a betting model, the selected metric is important. It can be argued that the average result is 1-1, therefore there is no proof that there is a difference.
Why you should consider the goal difference
In their analysis of the home team’s advantage in the EPL, they investigated whether there are indications that the teams have a better performance at home. To find out, they considered the goal difference, instead of just the result.
That is, if a team lost 0-1 at home and 4-0 away from home, it means that the team has some kind of advantage at home, despite losing both games. They could not find a specific trend but their work, Home Team Advantage in English Premier League, offers a very interesting reading.
While the study mentioned above provides a magnificent reflection on the advantage of playing at home as a general concept, it also analyzes how it benefits the teams in particular. Liverpool is an example that stands out due to a constant decrease in the advantage of playing at home in recent times, compared to the advantage of playing at home of Arsenal, which seems to have been very irregular during the same period.
What contributes to the advantage of the local team?
There is always some subjectivity when applying models, hence it is necessary to consider the possible factors that explain why there may be the advantage of playing at home.
Often, bettors will consider the impact of distance traveled in the NFL, where teams can travel more than 3,000 kilometers to play a game (the longest distance between two Premier League stadiums this season, Newcastle and Swansea, is 570 kilometers).
Apart from the national competitions, the teams will have to travel further distances to compete in European competitions, such as the Champions League and the Europa League. Since the teams will have to make round trips due to these matches in a short period of time, the advantage of playing at home could be more pronounced both in European games played away from home and in games played away from home. After returning from a European party.
Another factor that contributes to the advantage of playing at home could be the number of spectators. The claim that fans act as “player number 12” on the field remains debatable, especially when teams like West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur have increased their capacity with new stadiums , but still suffered a decline in their performance.
A presentation at the last International Conference on Sport and Mathematics (June 2017) suggested that it could be bad arbitration decisions, since more and more of those decisions are modified later after a claim.
I am also very interested in seeing if the spectators exert any influence on the local team when it comes to scoring more goals or conceding less, that is, if the change in intensity varies depending on whether the home team or visitor scores or fits a goal. This could entail evaluating if there is any difference between the matches at home and away from the moment in which the first goal is scored.
The ideal to take advantage of the best and most competitive odds of betting for the 2018 World Cup is to be registered in more than one betting house. In the section of ‘Bookmakers’ we recommend some options so you can enjoy Russia 2018 getting benefits from your bets and your knowledge of football in general. Moving we must start from the quota is the number by which we multiply the amount of money that we bet. From that result will come no more or less than our profit. For example, if we bet 3.00 euros for Spain against Portugal with a quota of 1.90, we will receive a total of 5.70 euros (2.70 of profit, also recovering the 3.00 invested initially).
When comparing bookmakers to choose from in which to register we suggest that, as a starting point, you establish what your priorities are. The fees vary according to each operator and are very important because they will ultimately determine our income, but in no way are the only points to be taken into account. Do not lose sight of the fact that it must be a reliable company that inspires you with confidence and security, with good customer service, a wide range of bets and methods of depositing and withdrawing money that serve you, among other things.
Types of installments
In Apuestas-Mundial.es we deal with the decimal or European format, the easiest to understand and the one that you will find a priori in the majority of betting houses. The example described above is with decimal quotas. Assuming that Brazil pays 6.00 euros in the bets to the 2018 World Champion, if we played 2.00 euros we would get a prize of 12: 2.00 × 6.00 = 12.00 (10.00 of profit).
On the other hand, there is the quota per fraction, used mainly in the United Kingdom, which is why it is also called ‘English quota’. The fractional fee is precisely a fraction: if Spain before Portugal pays 10/11, we will set our net profit multiplying the money invested by the fraction. So, if we bet 5 euros, the account will be 5 × 10/11, whose result is 4.54.
Finally, we have the so-called American quotas, common in the United States, Canada and other countries in the region. Following the same example of the match between Spain and Portugal, the victory the red one in American odds could pay -110. In this case we have a negative quota and means that to get 100 euros, for example, we would have to put at stake 110.
While most of the bets are received when the event has not yet started, many times we have the possibility to bet during the course of the event.
The World Cup will not be the exception. The most prestigious betting houses according to us, like Bet365, William Hill or Bwin for example, will offer live betting thanks to its already famous “Live” service.
Although it seems obvious, it is worth clarifying that Live bets are those that are made with the match in play. When the quotas are changing according to the different circumstances of the meeting.
Now, in the face of the beginning of the 2018 World Cup Russia, from here we leave you a couple of tips.
– First of all it’s about how to place Live bets. That an event does not start as we thought it does not have to make us bet against what we had previously wagered.
In this way the only thing we will achieve is to increase the margin of error and reduce our chances. As an example, if we think that Spain will beat Chile forcefully, an early goal by the South Americans cannot make us change our bet in favor of the “Red”.
– In second place the interesting thing is to know when to use Live betting. We do not always have the time to place bets during a game. Sometimes we are working hours or simply do not have a computer (or any other mobile device) available to place bets.
But if we have the opportunity to witness the match, we can use the Live when the team shares that we consider favorite do not meet our expectations.
Let’s go back to the example of Spain – Chile
Obviously the quotas will increase if it is that Chile is winning the match. If we are sure that Spain will win, the time when it is disadvantaged is the best to bet.
Live bets are double-edged weapons. They are exciting and addictive, but before the end we recommend some advice. If you see that luck does not favor you with the Live, do not insist. There are people with skills to bet live and others just before the event.